March 1, 2009
Daniel Cox
Editor, Poker Insider
Magazine
Twentynine Palms, CA – During the 2004 World Series of Poker
Main Event, amateur player John Carway was in a hand with poker professional
and notoriously loose player Sam Farha. After betting all-in and being called,
John said, “I was trying to bluff you out, but obviously you don’t bluff.”
Sammy replied, “You were shaking too much. That is why you are better on the
Internet.” After a miracle Eight of Spades on the river gave the hand to John,
Sammy (the 2003 WSOP Main Event runner-up) said, “You got to prove it.”
Reasons to Bluff
The best hand does not always win the pot. Often the player
that acts as if they have the best hand is the one who rakes in the chips. When
playing short-handed, the chances increase that no one has a good hand.
Normally, to get a bluff to work, you need to fire more than one bet at the
pot, establishing that you have a strong hand. If you raise pre-flop and miss
on the flop, the other players do not know it. It is possible to fool them with
a bluff here, since they are likely to assume you have a high pair or hit the
straight or flush draw. If you are in a late position and everyone checked to
you, it is smart to bet strong. This move may force some players out of the
hand. This is true if the board holds a couple of high cards, a straight draw
or a flush draw. Unfortunately, since some players may stay, you must continue
the bluff to make it work.
Most high quality players stick to the rule and throw away a
hand as soon as they know it cannot win. By bluffing, you increase the chances
they might throw away a missed flush/straight or low pair. You can also steal
the pot by bluffing on the river card. When a middle or low pair appears on the
flop, other players might be waiting for a high card and not want to waste
their chips against a possible set. In this instance, a strong bet may cause
the other players to think you made the set. Betting strong when an Ace is on
the board is a prime bluff opportunity, but it could also come back to haunt
you, since, statistically, an Ace appears as a hole card 22% of the time.
When there are fewer players in a pot, it is easier to
bluff: It is easier to trick a couple of people than to trick a crowd. With
fewer hands out there, chances are better that no one has made a reasonable
hand. Some players, especially low quality ones, stay in the hand just to keep
you honest. Sometimes it needs to be a persistent bluff over a period of two or
three betting rounds. This can be costly if they do not fall for it, so you
need to know the opponents before you use this type of bluff.
Tight-passive opponents tend to fold easily and are the best
targets for a bluff. Bets put out just as a form of information gathering on
this player's hand can turn into a bluff. If you bluff early (pre-flop or flop)
against a very tight player and they do not fold, you should think about
folding and trying it again on a future round. Your job, in this situation, is
to determine whether they have a made hand or are drawing to one.
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When the river card falls and it is apparent that the players
with drawing hands did not hit, a bluff often works. It is on the river that
even weak players are more likely to follow the age-old advice that the moment
you know you cannot win, throw in your cards. If the betting patterns show
weakness, it is often profitable to bet strongly when holding a strong Ace or a
low pair. Often, you will find some players staying in the hand with a busted
draw because of their pot odds, while others feel pot committed in this
situation. Just be aware that bluffing with a weak Ace here can be troublesome,
because your opponent may have a better kicker or a slightly higher pair they
felt was a loser, but that can beat the river bluff.
One bluff that weak players often use far too frequently,
especially in freerolls or in the initial stages of a multiple re-buy
tournament, is the All-in bluff. With marginal hands at best, they try to steal
blinds early in the seating. When they hold a poor hand, they are hoping for a
miracle hit to double or triple up. Sometimes these players continue this
pattern of all-in until they have a sizable chip lead or until someone stops
them. Do not let this type of player frustrate you. It is easiest (and most
profitable) to wait until you have a huge hand, call their all-in and then
punish them.
Unlike the All-in bluff, and most other bluffs, the Post Oak
Bluff differs in that it does not involve a large number of chips. For this,
you make a small bet, representing the value bet of a strong hand, rather than
the scared bet of a weak one. This is especially effective if you have been
making the value bet a common part of your winning hands.
Reasons to Semi-Bluff
As previously shown, bluffing is not as effective in limit
games. The semi-bluff is better to use, since then you hold a drawing hand with
a strong possibility of improving, but bet as if it is a bluff. When you use it
against players without a hand, it functions like a bluff. When you use it
against players with a hand, it functions as a form of aggression. It is a
powerful tool, as it leads to a deceptively powerful hand if you hit. The
reason the semi-bluff works is that, statistically, the type hands you use it
on have at least a 25% to 33% chance of winning, and you are rarely more than a
two-to-one underdog.
It is best to use the semi-bluff in typical bluffing
situations. Its usefulness comes from the fact that any players who recognize
it as a bluff may not see when you make your draw. It is more useful (and
preferable) against several players, as opposed to outright bluffing, since the
odds tend to be better. The semi-bluff is best in late position, on the flop or turn, against
mediocre flops, and against poor players. Starting hands like the Blackjack or
Suited-connectors are prime cards to use with the semi-bluff. If you do hit
after the flop or turn, continue to bet aggressively. However, if you miss you
can continue to bet at the pot, or you can muck your cards, depending on your
read of your opponents’ cards.
Though there are many financial benefits to successfully
using the semi-bluff, it can also, like the bluff, be a source of great loss if
you misuse the ploy or try to use it too often. If you semi-bluff with the
flush draw and then hit the flush on the turn, a normal one-half pot bet does
not give away your hand. Your opponent may suspect a flush, but that does not
mean they can call. If you have been portraying the best hand, you should not
stop betting when you hit it. Trying to slow-play your hand is dangerous. Build
the pot as much as you can to the river, and stack the chips when you win.
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Calculating Odds when Bluffing
One should always look at poker from a statistical
perspective, even when bluffing. By using your knowledge of odds, you can
determine if it is the right time to bluff. This is particularly useful when
there are only one or two players in the hand and the pot has grown large.
It is always good to calculate the odds when you bust a
potential straight or flush on the river. You have to have been betting as if
you made the hand prior to the river to make this type of bluff succeed. The
main reason to bluff in this situation is that you know you have lost the hand
if you fold or call. The only way you have a chance of winning is convincing
the opponent you hit. This is a situation where position and knowledge of the
other players help you decide if the odds are good enough to pull off the
bluff.
Bluffing, especially when basing the bluff with the odds in
your favor, can be unreliable since many players stay in a hand solely on their
own pot odds. When bluffing, the odds are never your sole input. You must know
your opponents and act accordingly.
Reasons Not to Bluff
Just as important as knowing when to bluff, is knowing when
not to bluff. In general, the more players in a hand, the more likely at least
one player will call. If someone already has a raise in the pot, it is
dangerous to bluff. Bluffing in poker can be a powerful tool, and it is
important to know the key bluffing situations. Do not bluff just because you
can. It is a common beginning player mistake to bluff a certain number of times
per session, or repeatedly in the same situation, such as from the button. Like
finding reasons to fold, you should always be looking for reasons not to bluff.
In most cases, it takes a feel for a table to decide to bluff. When you do
bluff, keep in mind that other players are also looking for an opportunity to
bluff. Maybe you spot them bluffing in a common situation or they spot you. The
bluff only works if you get away with it, so use it sparingly.
Do not bluff when other players are expecting it. A huge
tell is consistently bluffing in the same situation. Always consider this rule
before attempting a bluff. When you have been caught bluffing, other players
may attach the label of a poor bluffer to you. Take some time to let them
forget the hand where you were caught and begin rebuilding a reputation as a
solid player so you can eventually bluff again.
Do not try to bluff with a dangerous flop on the board. If
the flop has an Ace, chances are that someone has a pair of Aces. Aces, even
those with low kickers, tend to make it beyond pre-flop. Unless there is an
over-riding reason to, do not bluff against Aces. A flop of King–Queen–Nine is
also dangerous to bluff against, especially if two cards are suited. Chances are
another player has a hand they want to stick with.
As much as weak players love to bluff, they love to catch
someone in a bluff even more. Low quality players are much more likely to keep
you honest. They do not understand that calling hand after hand is a policy
that quickly drains chip stacks. It is much more profitable to play straight up
against these players. Bluffing is only effective from a fear perspective in
this case, and most weak players do not understand the game enough to be
afraid.
If you were just dealt a bad beat, or have lost a series of
hands, do not try to bluff. Not only might you actually be on tilt, other
players expect you to be on tilt, and are more ready to call you. Another time
not to bluff is if you limp into the pot pre-flop, since other players think
you have a poor hand and expect a bluff.
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Reasons Other People Bluff
Deciding when others are bluffing is not about reading
tells: It is about identifying the situations where bluffing is plausible, and
when other players may bluff. Generally, you can look at the reasons you would
bluff and apply these to your opponents. Naturally, you have to know the
players and be able to evaluate their play.
One reason players bluff is they are trying to maintain
their initiative, despite a bad flop. If they bet strong pre-flop from a poor
position, and the flop comes out rainbow 5–7–7, they may be just trying to keep
momentum going and attempt to bluff their way out of the hand. They are
probably drawing to over-cards, or they may have a middle pair. A re-raise
could have them rethink their strategy, and it might give you another betting
round or two to make your hand.
Sometimes the pot odds are so great that, no matter how bad
their hand appears, they have to go for it. It is almost certain someone is
going to bluff against a big pot. With strong pot odds, you probably also want
to stay in the hand. The most common time to pull off a bluff is when the field
is reduced to heads-up play: It is much easier to trick just one person. Your
observations of the previous rounds and evaluation of the current board are
crucial in determining what cards the other player might hold.
Opponents sometimes bluff when the flop eliminates their
ability to acquire a draw. Other times, they bet strongly because they have a
good hand. You really have to know the player to determine why they are
betting. If a player bets on the flop, then checks on the turn, they are often
on a draw that has not hit and are trying to buy a free card. By betting
strongly back at them, you can re-take the initiative. If a player bets on the
flop, bets on the turn and then checks on the river, they often were on a draw
that did not hit. Again, they are probably trying to buy a free card. If you
bet strongly back at them, you can attempt to re-take the initiative and often
force them to fold.
Calling the Bluff
Though you should not invest much effort in stopping a
persistent bluffer, an occasional attempt can have advantages. If the bluffers
are taking advantage of other players at the table when you are not in a hand,
let them. It should only matter to you if they are taking your money, or money
you are trying to take from others. A high- quality, tight-aggressive player,
taking in more than the average number of pots, must be successfully bluffing
at times.
If you decide to try to stop the bluffer, the best way to do
it is with a strong hand. Though trying to represent a stronger hand than the
bluffer may be a good way to stop their actions, actually having a good hand is
better. If the bluffer was on a semi-bluff and hits, trying to stop them with
only heart can cost you a lot of money. If you suspect the actions at the table
are those of a habitual bluffer (or blinds thief) and you do not have a strong
hand, use the same strategy you would with any bluff. Bluffing a bluffer,
especially with a solid semi-bluff, does have the advantage of not facing an
actual strong hand.
If you decide not to call another player’s possible bluff,
there is another way to try to gather information. By saying, “Nice bluff,” as
you muck your hand sometimes causes an opponent to flash their hand to prove it
was not a bluff or to prove how smart they were in successfully bluffing the
table.
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